https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-21/asia-stocks-pricing-in-20-chance-of-serious-trade-war-ubs-says

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Asian stock markets are pricing in the probability of a more serious trade dispute causing an earnings recession at about one in five, according to a UBS Group AG study. This week’s escalation in tension between the U.S. and China, which led to declines in equities on Monday and Tuesday, has seen equity investors increase their expectations of that becoming a reality by about 9 percent, strategists including Niall MacLeod wrote in a report. A full fledged trade war could see stocks in Asia tumble 30 percent from this year’s peak, they said. “This suggests that if our base case plays out, and calm is restored, current sentiment is likely pricing in too harsh an outcome,” the strategist... Full story

21 June

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